Transition to Dictatorship Rhythm / Jorge Olivera Castillo
Posted on March 4, 2014
HAVANA, Cuba, March — Latin America and now the European Union approach
the Cuban dictatorship without great demands. Respect for fundamental
rights, as a requisite for closer relations with Havana passes to a more
distant plane than previously.
The priority is to guarantee the survival of the regime as an assurance
of political stability within the Island, and maybe to manage a soft
landing towards some form of less authoritarian government. It is risky,
at the very least, to say that the end point of this journey that is
barely beginning is democracy with all its attributes.
Single-party socialism is not going to disappear from Cuba because of a
civilian-military revolution. Neither does it appear that its end is
associated with a negotiating table formed by people of the current
regime, the Catholic Church and the opposition groups. If history grants
the possibility of such a scenario, it would settle for when the heirs
of the gerontocracy assume control at a time impossible to determine.
Whoever says to the contrary is, as they say, lost in the weeds. The
weakness of the opposition, in a social climate where anarchy stopped
being exceptional some time ago, is a reality that counts when the time
comes to define policies. Of course they are not the only motivations,
but there is no doubt that they have contributed to things flowing in
favor of conservative pragmatism.
To this one would have to add the little importance of our country in
the geopolitical order. Without great economic attractions or strategic
relevance for the centers of world power, the topic of Cuba dissolves
between indifference and the castlings of very specific interest.
Nothing of commitments with respect to a political evolution that
overcomes single party rule and the impossibility of exercising
fundamental rights without conditions. That would come associated with
the development of economic openness.
The only government that maintains a policy of confrontation is the
United States, although of little benefit for advancing the
pro-democracy agenda. The embargo increasingly loses effectiveness
following a moderating trend that includes important sectors linked to
the politics and economy of this nation.
At times it seems that the incidents of abuse perpetrated by the regime
fall on deaf ears. Except for a few non-governmental organizations, the
majority of governments remain impassive in the face of statistics about
arbitrary arrests, acts of repudiation and prison sentences for
Resignation would not be a good option facing the sequence of
irrefutable facts, but also one has to be careful about romantic visions.
A deep reflection about the circumstances is necessary. The opposition
and the members of alternative civil society that do not do it will fall
by the wayside. One must insist on efforts to be more creative and to
eliminate the recurrence of old errors that continue burdening the
Cubanet, March 3, 2014, Jorge Olivera Castillo
Translated by mlk
Source: Transition to Dictatorship Rhythm / Jorge Olivera Castillo |
Translating Cuba –